Winter Forecast – What to Expect in the Real Estate Market
As the song says, “Let it snow.” And now that winter is here…what about the real estate market? Will it get snowed over?
In this post we’ll see what the experts predict. We’re even including The Old Farmer’s Almanac!
The Data Says…
According to data from Redfin, 59.2% of homes sold above list price in May 2022. This is a 16.7% increase since January of the same year. Home prices also tend to skyrocket as early as March to keep up with the high demand from homebuyers.
Winter is Better for Deal Hunting
For sellers, the winter months may bring winter blues. With the holiday season (and cold weather in most states), some homebuyers tend to wait it out.
The bottom line is that seasonality plays a significant role in the housing market. Home buying and selling pick up during the spring and summer months and go into a lull during the fall and winter.
The Farmer’s Almanac is Predicting an Extreme Winter Forecast
For 231 years, The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been helping readers to prepare with its incredible 80% –accurate weather forecasts.
Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac said, “Depending on where you live, this will be the best of winters or memorable for all the wrong reasons. One half of the country will deal with bone-chilling cold and loads of snow, while the other half may feel like winter never really arrives.”
The Good for Buyers and Sellers: The West Coast Will Be Wet and Mild
They predict that the western half of the United States, will have a wet and mild winter with lots of rain and temperatures that will be above normal.
- Winter temperatures will be milder than normal across eastern Maine, from the Rockies to the West Coast, and across Alaska and Hawaii.
- Precipitation will be above normal from Maine to southeastern Virginia, in Florida, and from the lower Great Lakes into Missouri.
The Not So Good for Buyers and Sellers: The Mid-West and East Coast Brace for a Harsh Winter
The eastern half of the U.S. should brace for potentially record-breaking cold to define the season. This frigid forecast extends to the Deep South and Texas, which could see the mercury diving as much as 8°F below normal!
- Winter temperatures will be colder than normal across much of the country between the East Coast and Rockies.
- Snowfall will be greater than normal from central New England through northern North Carolina, from the Lower Great Lakes and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains, from the northern Plains into eastern Washington, and across the higher terrain of the southern Rockies and California.
- Freezing temperatures will also bring above-average snow totals to most areas in the eastern U.S. that typically experience snowfall.
Even with all the gloom, doom and hand wringing about rising rates and low inventory levels, there are still houses out there to buy.
Bankrate.com interviewed several industry experts and here’s what three have to say.
Embrace Home Loans® own Steve Adamo, president of national retail production expects this winter’s housing market to have increased supply and more moderate prices than last year’s. “The winter season will show a flattening of home prices,” he says. “Mortgage interest rates will likely stay in the range they are today, at 6.5 to 7%. And housing inventory will continue to grow as affordability becomes more challenged and we enter a higher supply and lower demand environment.”
Clifford Rossi, former managing director of Citigroup’s Consumer Lending Group, feels housing prices will continue to decelerate. “We are in for a bumpy ride in housing over the next 12 months, but we shouldn’t expect it to look anything like 2008 to 2009,” he says. “This looks to be more of a reversion to the mean from a period of lofty house price appreciation. We could see a 3 to 8% decline in home prices over the next 12 months.”
Dennis Shirshikov, head of content for real estate investment website Awning said, “In December, I expect we will continue to see increased inventory and price decreases of 5% nationally.” He believes larger price markdowns of 10% or more are likely in January, “with fewer new properties hitting the market.” Finally Shirshikov expects even further price cuts in February to attract the coming spring buyers.
Homebuyer Optimism Shows A Glimmer of Hope
As interest rates rise and the housing market cools, you may be asking yourself is there any good news out there? There most definitely is a glimmer peaking through the market chill.
Optimism about purchasing a home rose for the first time in nine months, according to the latest Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). The index increased 0.6 points in November to 57.3, its first increase in nine months, though it remains just above the all-time low set last month and significantly lower than its level at this time last year.
We Can Help You Finance Your New Home
If your winter plans involve getting into that dream home this winter, Embrace Home Loans can help you get the financing you need to buy a new home, refinance an existing mortgage, or consolidate high-interest debt.
Customer satisfaction is our highest priority (we continue to win awards), and we are always developing new loan products to fit the individual needs of our borrowers. When you work with us, you’ll discover why getting a mortgage is so much better when you Embrace it.